The national debt is quickly approaching $36 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury, a fact that has fueled concerns among investors and economists. This means that the federal debt has nearly quadrupled since before the 2008 global financial crisis, and has grown every year since 2001. This adds to the recurring fiscal debates over budget deficits, the debt ceiling, government shutdowns, stimulus bills, and more.
After a historic campaign, Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election and Republicans have won control of the Senate. For half the country, this is a cause for celebration, while for the other half, this is a disappointing result that will require time to process. This reflects the divisions in our country on both social and economic matters that we hope will heal in time.
For those in or approaching retirement age, there is nothing more important than building a portfolio that can support a long, fulfilling retirement. Given the difficult inflationary conditions of the past few years, the risk that worries most retirees continues to be outliving their savings.
Article by James Liu, CFA. Founder and Head of Research Clearnomics. With just days to go until the presidential election on November 5, polls suggest it will be a close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Both candidates are campaigning hard in swing states, and investors may be worried about how either outcome might affect their portfolios. Given the intense political divisions in recent years, it’s not surprising that emotions...
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated in recent days, raising the risk of a full-scale war and marking another chapter in Middle East instability.
Article by James Liu, CFA. Founder and Head of Research Clearnomics. As we begin the final quarter of the year, financial markets and the economy have defied the expectations of many investors. Rather than falling into recession, the economy has grown steadily, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation rates have fallen toward the Fed’s target. As a result, the macroeconomic environment has shifted to a monetary easing cycle, propelling the S&P 500 and Dow...
As we enter the second half of the year, it’s important for long-term investors to maintain perspective on the major events that have driven markets. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the stock market has experienced a strong rally as investors anticipate the first Fed rate cut and the rally in artificial intelligence stocks continues. During the first six months of the year, the S&P 500 gained 15.3% with dividends, the Nasdaq 18.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 4.8%.
The path of interest rates has been highly uncertain over the past few years due to inflation, economic growth, and the Fed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, for instance, jumped from 3.8% at the end of last year to a high of 4.7% in April, before settling around 4.2% more recently. Higher rates have defied the expectations of investors and economists, creating a challenging environment for the bond market, since rising rates push down bond prices.
